Is it finally time to pull the trigger on that new RV you have had your eye on?
Will RV prices go down in 2023?
Yes, if trends keep moving in a positive direction, prices should go back to what we would call normal. Better yet, with supply and demand from dealerships replenishing inventory it could even bring us some deals. Especially, if units don’t move as quickly as they might like.
A year ago some dealers owned an empty lot with little to no inventory to move. RV dealers now find themselves with what seems like overflowing lots, but not so fast. Just because their lots are looking full, not all those RVs are available to the consumer. Many rigs have been pre-ordered and await pickup by the new owner.
The good news is a recent survey by the firm Trust found that nearly 70% of RV dealers claimed the demand for new rigs has slowed “noticeably.” About 40% of the dealers surveyed said they expected sales volumes to decline, compared to 5% when they were surveyed in February.
There are multiple reasons for the sudden impacts on inventory at some dealerships.
The main reasons are an economy in turmoil, rising interest rates, unprecedented gas prices, and private owners selling after buyer’s remorse from a spur-of-the-moment purchase. Whatever the reason, it is good for the consumer.
As buyers hit the dealerships they are also asking themselves, “Is an RV a good investment” or just a waste of their hard-earned money?
I have heard a lot of horror stories about RV enthusiasts that get into a new unit and it is just falling apart from day one. What then? Is there any such thing as a Lemon Law for RVs?
Think about this!
There is an index that takes a peek into the future telling us about the RV dealer sentiment. The index looks at dealer sentiment based on a score of 1-100. Scores over 50 indicate a positive outlook, while scores under 50 indicate a negative outlook toward the future.
One RV Dealer Sentiment Index is prepared by Baird Financial Services and published by the RV Dealers Association monthly. Currently, we find that RV dealers now appear to be negative when they forecast for the next 3-5 years.
The overall RV dealer sentiment score in June was 26 out of 100, down 54% from the score in April. That is when dealers rated the current industry market condition at 57. The June score is the lowest level since 2009.
When dealers looked out in the future for 3 to 5 years, the score rose to 47. That was up 8 points from the 39 index score in April but still showed a negative outlook. It’s only the second time the 3- to 5-year outlook has been negative since the index began in 2006.
July numbers are trending upwards but this is a good index to be followed into 2023 – READ MORE
RV lots are filling back up
RV shipments are expected to continue to retreat through the first half of 2023 due to economic headwinds to consumer finances stemming from inflation, financial market weakness, and higher interest rates. The industry will begin to recover in the latter half of 2023 with shipments expected to trend upward.
RV wholesale shipments will normalize to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, according to the December 2022 issue of RV RoadSigns, the quarterly forecast prepared by ITR Economics for the RV Industry Association.
The new forecast projects 2023 RV shipments to range from 379,200 to 403,600 units next year with a most likely year-end total of 391,499 units. This would represent a 21% decline from the expected 2022 year-end total of 495,300 units. The 2023 forecast would be in line with the shipment total of 406,070 in 2019.
Read the complete forecast for the final quarter of 2022 to learn more from the RV Industry website
From the Wallstreet journal
The Wall Street Journal story quoted Raymond James analyst Joseph Altobello saying the RV industry would be “hard-pressed to complete a soft-landing.” Altobello went so far as to say that the oversupply on dealer lots will likely bring a high degree of discounting.
Stock prices can be a good indicator of what is to come for RV prices. Keep an eye on large companies like Thor industries and dealerships like Camping World to see how they react through 2022.
RV lots are starting to replenish their inventory and many have full lots already. This can only be good news in the near future for someone looking to invest in an RV.
Dealers and manufacturers will try to hold out, but they can only sit on supplies for so long. If inventory does not move, discounts will need to be implemented to get the ball rolling.
So, what are some of the additional costs of buying a new RV that I have not thought about? Of course, there is insurance, but how much is the average cost of RV insurance?
Conclusion
With RV dealership inventory on the rise, discounts may follow in the near future. Also, there are many private sellers that need to move their RVs after a bad case of buyer remorse.
Those two scenarios go hand and hand, if the dealer is offering deals then private sellers will need to also be flexible on their pricing.
Supply and demand seem to be in the buyer’s favor.
